Since its summer offensive, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops back considerably from the territory they captured in first several months of the conflict. They have caused perhaps 100,000 Russian casualties, but have suffered a significant number of casualties as well. The momentum has shifted in their favor, but what would it take for them to achieve a complete victory?
Protracted War: Owing to mounting casualties and loss of military materiel, the Russian aggressors have had to switch their tactics to fit a protracted strategy while they regroup and get reinforced with a large callup of manpower. As a result, they have been targeting infrastructure, especially power plants, with long-range missiles to harass the population into thinking that they will have to survive the coming winter without adequate energy sources. These bombardments of energy infrastructure have damaged, but not destroyed, the Ukrainian power grid. However, the Russians could be running low on their supply of missiles and drones without adequate means of replenishment owing to Western sanctions.
Western Support for Ukraine: Since the very start of the war in February, 2022, Western Europe and the United States have poured in support of all different stripes—military, humanitarian, diplomatic, and financial. Modern Western weapons have proven to be superior on the battlefield, and advice on tactics has enabled Ukraine to turn the war in its favor. Ukrainian troops have been trained in Britain and other countries giving them a substantial edge over the untrained Russian troops. But how long can this major amount of aid continue? The political landscape in the United States has taken a slight shift in the recent midterm elections. The new U.S. House of Representatives will have a Republican majority that may scrutinize aid more closely. Other European countries are becoming more and more strapped by rising energy prices caused by restrictions on one of their largest energy suppliers, Russia. If the coming winter in Europe brings severe weather to the region, this hardship could cause a portion of Ukraine’s support to decline or even disappear.
Ukrainian Morale Is Very High: The Russian shift to targeting the Ukraine’s electric grid was designed to weaken morale among Ukrainians, but morale remains very high as nearly 90% of Ukrainians favor to continue fighting. The invasion galvanized the country into understanding that their very future as a sovereign nation and an independent people is at stake. Contrast that with only about 36% of the Russian population wanting to continue the war and 57% favoring a peace agreement. History has proven that the tougher an aggressor is on the occupied population, the more the oppressed people are willing to hunker down and strike back. Of all the bombing of Nazi Germany during World War II, their military production didn’t reach its peak until late in 1944.
Diplomatic Efforts: In the early going Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, was willing to seek a negotiated settlement, and the two sides did sit down and talk. However, after the Russian army withdrew from their assault on Kyiv, various atrocities against Ukrainian civilians by the Russians rose to the surface, and Zelensky withdrew from the negotiations. Russian president Vladimir Putin has claimed that he is willing to negotiate, but blames Ukraine’s “Western masters” for preventing it from talking. Putin further requires that all parties recognize before negotiations begin that Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in 2014 legitimately belongs to Russia. The outcome of diplomacy is highly uncertain as it could turn out the same way that it did in 1940 after the Finland/Russian conflict that took place early in World War II. Finnish soldiers put up a gallant fight that inflicted heavy losses on the Russian military, but in the end, they had to surrender portions of Finland to Russia as their supplies from their Western benefactors dried up. The West has only recently been specific about their position in any negotiated settlement as the G7 leaders came down hard demanding that Russia unconditionally withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories. It would seem unlikely that Putin would accept those terms short of his forces sustaining a major military defeat.
Reconstruction: Even now before the conflict is close to being over, humanitarian aid and funding for reconstruction has been quietly flowing into Ukraine. It would not be too soon for the Ukrainian government to formulate a plan for the postwar future that would include reconstruction aid and its sources. Several phases might be needed. Billions of dollars could be involved. In the final analysis, the reconstruction could resemble the Marshall Plan of the late 1940’s that helped to rebuild war-torn Europe.
Conclusions: The Ukrainians have the advantage in that momentum favors their military, but that momentum could be fleeting if Russia were to switch to a protracted war that involved insurgency and counterinsurgency. Such a long and costly struggle could wear the Ukrainians down. The U.S. and other Western countries have placed restrictions on the usage of donated weaponry in that it cannot be used against the Russian homeland. The sanctions are wearing on the Russian economy, but as long as they can export as much oil as they currently are, the economic warfare could take years to have a decisive effect. Any peace agreement that would seem feasible would likely have to include some concession in territory, especially that part that is already occupied. If all these things did come to pass and peace was achieved without a clear winner, it might only be for a few years until Russia is able to rearm and rebuild their forces for another invasion. World War I ended when Germany requested an armistice—they did not view themselves as being defeated. In twenty short years they were rearmed and back in another World War with the same enemies that was even worse than the first one.
Sources: The Economist, Finding an Ending, November 12th, 2022.
The Economist, Dreams of Peace, November 12th, 2022.