Global warming is a fact of life today, and it brings with it another nemesis—rising sea levels. This condition is exasperated by the huge amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Efforts are being made in many countries throughout the world to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and meet worldwide demand for energy using renewable sources. But it appears that over the next several generations the efforts being made today will have only a nominal effect where a huge effect would be needed. Let’s take a look at some of the more imminent areas to be impacted by rising sea levels stemming from global warming.
The West Africa Situation: West African nations have been enjoying a burst of economic growth leading to an increase in migration of the population away from the hot and dry interior regions to the coast. It is estimated that along a span of coastline that stretches from Mauritania in the northwest to Cameroon in the southeast the population could grow to as many as 116 million people by the year 2030. Some of the fastest growth in the world could make the coastline from Lagos, Nigeria, to Abidjan, Ivory Coast—a distance of about 680 miles—home to as many as 500 million people by the year 2100. This looks to be a great thing on paper as economic growth will accompany the growth of population in these promising areas. However, what happens to these population centers when the sea level rises? Some of the urban coastal areas are categorized as “crowded island cities built among waterways.” With rising sea levels expected to increase by perhaps two feet by the turn of the century, this great amount of population plus its corresponding economic activity could be largely under water, or face other forms of destruction from storm surges and flooding. In Nouakchott, Mauritania, much of the city is already below sea level being protected from destruction by a series of sand dunes that could one day be breached. Further, the growing coasts are being developed with little or no foresight as to what could happen if the sea levels rise past a certain point. As much as 42% of the GDP for these African nations comes from the coastal areas. The U.N.’s Global Center for Climate Mobility, however, has noted that in the face of rising sea levels without any improvements to the infrastructural status quo, these coastal areas could cease being population magnets and may become sources of climate migration themselves as soon as 2050. Stop-gap solutions have been used in the region for various types of emergencies, but no long-range overall solution is on the drawing board. Further, stop-gap solutions can be costly for poorer countries and be applied toward solving mainly the current crisis and not the causative factors.
The Miami Situation: Miami and South Florida also have been enjoying a major building boom brought on by massive migration and economic growth to this coastal area not only from the U.S., but also foreign countries. South Florida has an average elevation that ranges from zero to twenty-five feet above sea level. Miami Beach has an average elevation of about four feet, making it especially vulnerable to virtually any sea level rise. Miami could be the country’s first major metropolitan area to be permanently flooded by rising sea levels. The Army Corps of Engineers is on the problem and has developed a plan to protect the Miami-Dade coastline from rising seas. However, local politicians disagree with the Army Corps’ approach and have downplayed the risk imposed by rising sea levels in an effort to protect the area’s economic growth. But the stakes are very high particularly for insurance companies. Insurance risk from flooding and storm surge is climbing steadily with the rising sea levels. The aggregate cost incurred by insurance companies increases with each ensuing hurricane, tropical storm, or tornado. The rising insurance premiums for homeowners and small businessmen are no longer backed up by Federal Insurance programs, and the state has not yet stepped in to take on the problem. This makes insurance for many people and businesses ever more costly and harder to get. Native Floridians have noted that flooding has increased over the last decade. Many locals can recall when storm surge walls built in the 1940’s and 1950’s were adequate for the sea levels of those times. But global warming has changed that, and nowadays some of these older barriers are themselves under water as the sea level has regularly increased since that time. Flood control in the area has been managed via a system of canals that open and close their gates to balance the massive amounts of inland water. Salt water encroachment on fresh water supplies is a further problem as fresh water comes mainly from subterranean aquifers and faces pollution from sea water. Maintenance on water management infrastructure has become an on-going cost for those government services that maintain roads, bridges, canals, sewage systems, and fresh water systems. In a step in the right direction, four South Florida counties comprising an aggregate population of about 6.9 million have joined forces to combat the issue by compiling information and making projections for future sea level rises. This co-operation leads to better and more unified action plans to deal with rising sea levels using available resources as efficiently as possible. The key is for the planners to exercise the vision of a long-term solution in conjunction with what required actions are feasible and affordable in the short run.
Other Parts of the World: Global warming is causing the polar ice caps to melt and retreat in large areas. As this period of global warming continues the polar ice will continue to melt, and the rising sea level problems facing numerous countries will become more acute. The possibility of a six-meter rise in sea levels during this period of global warming is drawn from research by the Journal of Science that examined previous periods of global warming going back millions of years. If achieved, it could cause major relocations of populations, damage to infrastructure, and other economic havoc. Although it potentially represents a worst-case scenario, it should get the current attention of the right people in these affected areas. The below list shows the ten countries with the greatest risk of relocating population and economic activity:
- China: as many as 85 million people would need to be relocated from the Shanghai area as it is expected to be below a six-meter increase.
- Vietnam: the southern delta area—nearly a third of the country—could be completely flooded along with other coastal areas. This includes about 36% of the population and the country’s major agricultural region.
- India—the densely populated Mumbai region would be below the six-meter increase. The city itself could be isolated by sea water.
- Indonesia—many areas of Indonesia would be affected, but Jakarta, the nation’s capital could be about 50% submerged.
- Bangladesh—much of densely populated Bangladesh in the Ganges River Delta would lie below the six-meter level.
- Japan—Tokyo will be faced with flooding from a rising Tokyo Bay.
- United States—In addition to South Florida, areas around New York City and Northern New Jersey will receive a major impact. Much in the way of high-rise buildings and massive infrastructure resides in these areas particularly in Manhattan Island.
- Egypt—the Nile River Delta already has much in the way of salt water encroachment, and the city of Alexandria could be in peril.
- Brazil—45,000 square miles including Rio de Janeiro could be impacted.
- Netherlands—62% of the current population lives below the six-meter level.
Conclusions: This analysis looks primarily at two different regions that face the same pending issue. The case of West Africa appears to be more dramatic as the migration to the coast from the inhospitable interior is accelerating at a rapid pace. The case of Miami and South Florida has even more at stake as huge amounts of infrastructure are already in place, and political leaders have been known to drag their feet with changes that could interfere with further growth aspirations. The key to success may be taking place in South Florida where four counties have united together to bring timely and pertinent information about rising sea levels to aid in the optimization of resources used to combat the current risks.
Sources:
The Economist, Sunk Costs, June 29th 2024.
Plan Ongoing to Help Miami-Dade Coastline from Climate Change Impact.
Future Sea Level Rise: Top 10 Countries in Danger.
Special thanks to Russ Walsh.